Old Man winter is throwing Punches.

Earlier this week the Northeast had some of the coldest weather that it has seen in a while but wasn’t by any means the coldest airmass we have seen. It has since warmed a bit with highs in the 30s to low 40s regions wide today and yesterday. An Ocean storm will develop well offshore tonight and strengthen off the coast tomorrow. Rain and snow showers are possible across eastern Massachusetts, but it will most likely be restricted to the Cape and Islands. The area of high pressure over the Great lakes and the deepening area of low pressure off the coast undergoing Bombogenesis will create strong northerly winds as arctic air moves in behind a cold front Friday afternoon and Saturday night. Temperatures will drop quickly once the front passes. Low temperatures will be 5 below to 5 above Friday night into Saturday morning and with the wind wind chills will be in the range of 10 to 25 below west of I95. Highs will struggle in the single digits across most of the interior with low 10s Southeast Saturday. The cold will remain for Saturday night with lows ranging around zero.

For the Patriots at Bills game. ( Buffalo NY) Cold, Game start temperatures 8 degrees, Ending 0 Wind chills 5 to 10 below.. GO PATRIOTS!!!

Temperatures will warm a bit for Sunday as an area of high pressure shifts east setting up a complicated storm set up Sunday night into Monday night. A powerful storm is likely and currently looks to be a snow to rain situation but there remains lots of questions on storm track. Those along the coast should be prepared for coastal erosion and flooding.

Storm Discussion

A large storm is expected to impact many over the eastern two thirds of the country.

A storm will be moving into the Pacific northwest today and will shift into the Northern Rockies tonight into Friday. The energy will then shift southeast over the Rocky Mountains Friday. In the meantime a shortwave will move south/southeast over the Plains. The energy with this shortwave and 500V energy over the Rockies will interact and develop into an upper-level low somewhere in the Southern Plains Friday night or early Saturday. This upper level will spin up a surface low drawing tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that will become a rather potent winter storm for the Southeast states Sunday with Rain, Ice and snow location dependent and overall track of the surface low. The further north and west of a storm track the more rain that is involved.

In general most of the models are in general agreement with this system track through Saturday with slight and marginal differences in speed and location. The EURO is a tad further South than the GFS with the upper-level low.

As this upper-level low and associated surface low starts to move east/northeast Saturday night rain, snow and Ice will develop across the southeast and Tennessee valleys.

For the Southeast there still remains a question of how much ice vs rain in the eastern Carolina’s and if there is back end snow for the Northern Gulf states as the Low pulls Northeast Saturday night/Sunday.

Locally in New England Expect snow to rain but the interior could remain freezing rain do to cold air damming. Also many of these strong storms have a comma shape to it. You have the heaviest precipitation to the west of low center and north of warm front with a large dry slot moving in between the low-pressure center and south of the warm front. So the heaviest precipitation could fall as snow and by the time the changeover starts for the interior locations of SNE the heaviest of precipitation is over. This is just a possibility but its worth watching.

Their remains uncertainty on the storm track which creates the precipitation forecast above confidence lower for the Northeast states. The further west the warmer it is over New England and the more rain. A more east track off the New England coast or over the Cape/Islands will be a snowier scenerio. These questions will become clearer Saturday when another shortwave/trough quickly moves into Canada Friday/Saturday. IT will then move over the Great lakes/ohio valley Saturday/Saturday night and will start pulling the Coastal storm in towards the coast. The timing in which this happens is important. A slower shortwave/diging trough can lead to a further South and east storm track this though is decreasing in likelyhood. A storm track over Southeast Massachusetts/Southern New England is increasingly likely.

Forecast for the Merrimack Valley.

Tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy slight chance of flurries. Lows in the mid to high 20s.

Friday. Partly cloudy. Becoming windy. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures droping into the 10s late.

Friday night. Seasonally cold. Lows 5 below to 5 above. Wind chill values as low as -25. Windy.

Saturday. Cold. Sunny highs in the high single digits to low 10s. Breezy Wind chills as low as -20.

Saturday night. Seasonally cold. Partly cloudy. Lows around 0.

Sunday. Warmer Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s.

Sunday night. Becoming cloudy. Chance of snow after midnight. Snow likely around day break. Lows in the mid to high 10s.

Monday. Snow to freezing rain with a chance of rain. Ending in the mid afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 30s.

Monday night. Partly cloudy. Lows in the high 10s to low 20s.

Tuesday through Thursday. Partly cloudy highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Lows in the high 10s to low 20s.