The coldest temperatures of the season has moved in to the northeast this week. Low temperatures Saturday morning will range from 15 below in the colder locations of New England to low 20s across Virginia. It will be even colder Sunday morning.
Saturday 8am temperature, Wind chills will be below zero across New England and in the single digits along the coast and the rest of the Northeast. It will be even colder for Sunday morning across New England.
This cold air will be in place for the next storm system
An upper level low will slide west into the Ohio River valley Sunday with its associated surface low. It will continue to slide eastward. It looks to weaken as it does so and open into a trough. The parent surface low will transfer its energy to a developing low pressure off the east coast along the eastern periphery of the trough.
500 vorticity showing uppler level low and trough on the left. Surface lows on the right. Do not pay attention to what its showing in terms of precipitation type and intensity with the surface map. Just look at how the parent low transfers over to a coastal low. A classic Miller B storm.
Question that becomes is how suppressed is the surface low. Upstate NY will likely not see much out of this.
Most of the northeast look to receive snow. Upstate NY state will likely not see much in terms of snow but we can not rule out some lake effect snow off of the Great Lakes when the storm starts pulling away and the upper level low reforms over or to the east of New England.
As there is alot of questions still in place with this storm, the snowfall map is vague at this time. Numbers will be put to it tomorrow.
If you are in the blue or purple based on current thoughts and guidance a moderate snowfall is forecast at this time. If you are in the purple, you could see heavy snowfall but its to early to tell where exactly the heaviest of the snow will fall. Though at this time the best bet of seeing heavy snowfall is across southeastern New England. Upstate NY state is not expected to see much in the way of snowfall with this storm system.
Merrimack Valley Weather 